As the 2024 presidential election approaches, Vice President Kamala Harris is finding it increasingly difficult to secure victories in the critical swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—often referred to as the “Blue Wall” that Democrats have traditionally relied on to win presidential races. According to top Democratic politicians and insiders, these states are getting tougher for Harris and the party’s Senate candidates, as noted in Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei’s “Behind the Curtain” column.
Harris and the Fight for the Blue Wall
Harris’s path to the White House hinges on her success in these industrial states. With the potential for struggles in southern regions like the Sunbelt, her campaign is leaning heavily on Pennsylvania and Michigan to lock in a victory. Harris’s allies on private calls are already identifying these two states as likely to decide the outcome of the election.
However, there is growing concern among Democrats that Harris’s once-strong start seems to be stalling. Despite a substantial media push, favorable press coverage, and heavy campaign spending, Harris’s efforts don’t appear to be moving the needle significantly. Some insiders fear she may be stuck or even losing ground.
Pennsylvania: The Keystone State for the Election
Pennsylvania is emerging as the most important battleground for Harris. The state’s outcome could very well determine who will be the next president. Both the Harris and Trump campaigns have prioritized Pennsylvania, with plans to spend a staggering $350 million on TV ads in the state—$142 million more than the next most-targeted state, Michigan, according to reports.
Michigan: A Complex Political Landscape
Michigan presents its own set of challenges for the Harris campaign. The state’s electorate is becoming increasingly divided, with Democrats facing erosion of support among key groups, such as union members, Arab Americans, and young men. Michigan is also home to one of the three Senate races considered a toss-up by the Cook Political Report, alongside Ohio and Wisconsin.
Democratic Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) has raised alarms, warning donors that her internal polling shows Harris “underwater” in the state. Despite this, a recent Detroit News poll indicates Harris has gained momentum, holding a narrow three-point lead over Trump. Still, with Election Day drawing nearer, the margin remains perilously slim.
Wisconsin: A Toss-Up State
Wisconsin is another state where Democrats are increasingly nervous. The Cook Political Report recently moved the re-election race for Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) from “Lean Democrat” to a toss-up. There’s a palpable fear among Democratic insiders that this pivotal contest could be lost, especially as Trump continues to visit the state frequently.
Concerns from Democratic Leaders
With just 26 days left until Election Day, Democratic leaders along the Blue Wall are desperate for Harris to gain more traction. Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) emphasized the importance of voters seeing “the real Kamala Harris,” suggesting she needs to spend more time in union halls talking directly to people, much like Trump, who Dingell described as “personable.”
Polls Show a Close Race
The latest data from Quinnipiac University paints a precarious picture for Harris. Their poll suggests cracks in the Blue Wall, with Harris slightly ahead in Pennsylvania, while Trump holds leads in Michigan and Wisconsin. However, the margins are razor-thin, meaning the race is essentially a statistical tie.
Campaign Strategy: The Margin of Error Race
Despite the closeness of the race, Harris’s team remains cautiously optimistic. A campaign official noted that they always expected the Blue Wall states to be this competitive. “We’re dealing with a polarized electorate,” they said, emphasizing how each election cycle sees a shrinking pool of true swing voters. The campaign acknowledges that this will likely be a race determined within the margin of error.
Pressure to Step Up
The close margins and mounting pressure have Democratic strategists calling for a more aggressive campaign approach. James Carville, a political veteran who helped orchestrate Bill Clinton’s 1992 victory, believes Harris’s campaign needs to elevate its game. David Axelrod, another key Democratic strategist, added that while Harris had a strong start, her progress has plateaued. “Every time you clear a bar, the bar gets raised,” Axelrod warned, calling for strategic adjustments in the final stretch of the race.
As the final days before the election unfold, all eyes are on the Blue Wall. Whether Harris can solidify her standing in these key states may ultimately determine whether she becomes the next president of the United States.